NL Poll: Methodology Note

MQO Research was commissioned to conduct a public opinion poll regarding voting intentions in the upcoming Newfoundland & Labrador provincial election. Results of this poll were distributed by our commissioning partner among their internal client list. This research has not been publicly released.

Recognizing that some results from our research have been circulated via social sharing from some recipients of the internal release by our commissioning partner and have therefore entered the public discourse, we are providing methodological details of our research in accordance with our commitment to upholding Canadian research industry standards.

Methodology

Responses were collected via mixed-mode live telephone interviewing and online panel between October 4 and October 7, 2025. Respondents were 541 citizens of Newfoundland & Labrador eligible to vote in the provincial election (telephone: 291, online: 250). This poll was considered a non-probabilistic sample due to the contribution from online panel, therefore a margin of error cannot be calculated. For comparison purposes, a probability sample of 541 respondents would have a margin of error of 4.1%, 19 times out of 20. Other relevant margin of error equivalents include Decided Voters (n=365, 5.1%), and Decided+Leaning Voters (n=435, 4.7%). Data were weighted to 2025 provincial projections from the 2021 Canadian census proportions by age, gender, and region.

Question Wording

MAIN VOTE INTENT:

“Of the following parties, which party’s candidate are you planning to vote for as MHA in your district in the 2025 Newfoundland & Labrador provincial election?”

AMONG UNDECIDED:

“Although you told us you haven’t made up your mind about which party’s candidate to vote for, you might be leaning toward a candidate. Of the following parties, are you leaning toward voting for any of them in the upcoming Newfoundland & Labrador provincial election?”

RESPONSE OPTIONS:

Liberal Party; New Democratic Party; Progressive Conservative Party; An Independent Candidate; Other (write-in).

Subgroup Sample Sizes & Weighting