NL Poll: Methodology Note

UPDATE (OCT 14, 2025, 8:00PM NT): With all voting stations now closed and in accordance with the public interest, we have published our complete poll results. View data tables here.

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Methodology

Responses were collected via mixed-mode live telephone interviewing and online panel between October 4 and October 7, 2025. Respondents were 541 citizens of Newfoundland & Labrador eligible to vote in the provincial election (telephone: 291, online: 250). This poll was considered a non-probabilistic sample due to the contribution from online panel, therefore a margin of error cannot be calculated. For comparison purposes, a probability sample of 541 respondents would have a margin of error of 4.1%, 19 times out of 20. Other relevant margin of error equivalents include Decided Voters (n=365, 5.1%), and Decided+Leaning Voters (n=435, 4.7%). Data were weighted to 2025 provincial projections from the 2021 Canadian census proportions by age, gender, and region.

Question Wording

MAIN VOTE INTENT:

“Of the following parties, which party’s candidate are you planning to vote for as MHA in your district in the 2025 Newfoundland & Labrador provincial election?”

AMONG UNDECIDED:

“Although you told us you haven’t made up your mind about which party’s candidate to vote for, you might be leaning toward a candidate. Of the following parties, are you leaning toward voting for any of them in the upcoming Newfoundland & Labrador provincial election?”

RESPONSE OPTIONS:

Liberal Party; New Democratic Party; Progressive Conservative Party; An Independent Candidate; Other (write-in).

Subgroup Sample Sizes & Weighting