Majority Favours Tim Houston, PCs Lead Everywhere
The defending premier dominates in rural and suburban NS, holds slight edge in urban HRM
Halifax, NS – Over half of eligible Nova Scotian voters who have made up their minds, so far, would prefer incumbent Progressive Conservative premier Tim Houston stay in the role, according to a new poll by MQO Research.
Fifty-one percent of decided voters in the latest survey say they most prefer Houston to be the next Premier of Nova Scotia, followed by 25% for NDP leader Claudia Chender and 19% for Zach Churchill, the current leader of the Official Opposition (Liberal Party). Six percent would prefer Green Party leader Anthony Edmonds.
“Support for Tim Houston and his PC Party appears to be broad and deep as we move toward election day,” said Brenden Sommerhalder, Vice President of MQO Research.
“It would take a truly significant event or set of events for the other party leaders to catch up. Nothing is impossible with two weeks left to go—in 2021, Houston’s PCs came from behind to win a majority during the writ period—but at this point any outcome other than another majority government for Premier Houston would be a major upset.”
On the ballot-choice question, the leaders’ parties fare similarly with 47% of decided and leaning voters saying they would vote for the PC candidate in their riding, while 24% of MLA votes would go to the NDP, 20% to the Liberals, and seven percent to the Green Party.
The PCs enjoy broad support across the province, with dominant numbers in Annapolis Valley (58% choosing them vs. Liberals’ 20% and NDP’s 14%), North Shore (PC: 52%, NDP: 18%, Liberal: 13%), Cape Breton (PC: 52%, Liberal: 23%, NDP: 16%), and suburban HRM (PC: 44%, NDP: 29%, Liberal: 18%).
The ruling party holds comfortable leads in the Southern region (PC: 48%, NDP: 27%, Liberal: 21%) and HRM overall (PC: 40%, NDP 31%, Liberal: 20%), and hold a slight edge in urban HRM (PC: 38%, NDP: 36%, Liberal: 19%).
Support for the PCs is also robust across generations, with pluralities preferring Mr. Houston’s party among all age cohorts, including majority support among all cohorts aged 60 and older. The NDP are in contention to be the favourite among Gen Z voters, trailing the PCs by just three percentage points among those aged 18-27.
When asked to rank how important a set of issues are to them as they consider who to vote for, Cost of living and affordability (38%), Healthcare services and accessibility (28%), and Housing costs and availability (14%) are top of mind, with all other issues receiving minimal share of attention for most voters.
Voters are not particularly generous when asked their opinion about the current government’s approach or performance across these issues: Housing costs and availability (67% unfavourable), Cost of living and affordability (66% unfavourable), Dealing with unhoused people / tent encampments (54% unfavourable), and Healthcare services and accessibility (52% unfavourable).
“Despite high levels of dissatisfaction on the handling of voters’ most important issues, the large proportion of voters who support giving Tim Houston another term as premier tend to cite his performance on the job as a reason they support him,” said Sommerhalder. “This suggests that, although voters may not be content with the current state of affairs in Nova Scotia, they credit the premier with ‘work in progress’ and believe he is best suited to continue to lead the province.”
In the last question when we asked which party’s candidate you are planning to vote for as MLA in your riding, you said: [SUPPORTED PARTY]. Please explain why:
For the Progressive Conservative (PC) Party:
Those who said they are voting for the PC Party said they were going to vote that way due to their approval of Premier Tim Houston’s leadership, especially his efforts to improve healthcare, and alignment with the party’s policies. Many supporters want to give the current government more time, expressing views such as “Tim Houston has been doing a reasonably good job,” “I think Tim Houston deserves to be re-elected,” and “They are fixing our healthcare.”
For the New Democratic Party (NDP):
Those who said they are voting for the NDP said they were going to vote that way due to alignment with the party’s values on social issues, housing affordability, and healthcare, believing the NDP will best represent ordinary Nova Scotians. Examples include sentiments like “Their values align with mine,” “They seem to have the best plan for housing prices,” and “I feel like they’re the main party that puts people ahead of businesses and the wealthy.”
For the Liberal Party:
Those who said they are voting for the Liberal Party said they were going to vote that way due to their belief that the Liberals align with their values and can better address critical issues like healthcare and housing than the current government. They expressed dissatisfaction with the Progressive Conservatives, saying things like “Houston is not doing what he said,” and affirmed trust in the Liberals with comments such as “Because I trust them more than the other parties” and “They care about people.”
Responses were collected via online panel between November 3 and November 10, 2024. Respondents were 396 confirmed eligible voters per citizenship and residency requirements, sampled and weighted to Nova Scotia census proportions. Online panels are considered non-probabilistic, therefore a margin of error cannot be calculated. For comparison purposes, a probability sample of 396 respondents would have a margin of error of 5%, 19 times out of 20. This research was independently conducted and paid for by MQO Research.
MQO Research (mqoresearch.com) is an accredited agency member of the Canadian Research Insights Council. Fully owned and based in Atlantic Canada with over 35 years of industry experience, MQO is a leading full-service market research, polling, evaluation, and applied AI firm serving clients across North America.
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Media contact:
Kevin Surette
647-523-8142
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