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What if Canada Had Proportional Representation?
[Simulator]

In the wake of federal elections in Canada, as sure as the fact that the Canada Geese flock back to us in the Spring, a short-lived national conversation begins about whether our first-past-the-post electoral system is the best way to produce a parliament that represents the will of Canadians.

With the recent 2025 Canadian Federal Election now behind us, we hope to help inform this discussion by making the concept more tangible: What would our House of Commons look like if Canada had a form of proportional representation as our electoral system?

Below, we present our Proportional Representation Simulator based on the voting results from the federal election held in April, 2025. This simulation was developed by MQO Senior Research Associate, Eduardo Silva.

There are many potential types of proportional representation (PR). The form of PR this simulation is based on is modeled from the Brazilian system of open-list proportional representation. In this simulation, each province is a single multi-member district. Voters choose an individual party-affiliated candidate, and seats are awarded to each party proportionally based on total votes in the province, with party seats filled by their top vote-getting candidates. (See below for Methodology and Notes & Caveats)

This differs from the current Canadian system (first-past-the-post), where each of multiple ridings in a province elects only one MP — the candidate with the most votes wins, even if they do not have a majority. The Brazilian (open-list) PR model this simulation is based on maintains Canada’s tradition of voting for an individual, party-affiliated candidate (rather than voting for just a party, as is the case in some types of PR).

Proportional Representation Simulator

 
 

Methodology

  1. Province as District: Each province and territory is treated as a single multi-member electoral district, with the number of seats set to the province’s current allocation in the House of Commons.
  2. Party Vote Shares: The provincial or territorial party vote share across all candidates for each party is summed as each party’s total support within that jurisdiction.
  3. Seat Allocation: Seats are distributed to parties in each province or territory in proportion to their share of the total votes, using the D’Hondt method (as in Brazil).
  4. Representatives Elected: The most voted-for candidates within each party would become the representatives for the seats available for their party in their province.
  5. No Geographic Ridings Within Provinces: Local, single-member ridings are not used. Voters in each province or territory are represented by a slate of MPs proportional to the party vote in the entire province or territory.
  6. Thresholds: No candidate with less than 10% of the “electoral quotient” can be elected. The electoral quotient is established by dividing the total number of voters by the number of available seats. 

Notes & Caveats

This simulator is hypothetical for illustrative purposes only. A real election held under a new proportional representation (PR) system in Canada may produce very different results for a variety of reasons, including:

  • The type of electoral system a country has, impacts the way people vote. This simulator is based on actual votes from the (first-past-the-post) April, 2025 Federal Election, but if a proportional representation (PR) system was actually in place, people may have voted for a different party.
  • The type of electoral system a country has, also impacts the parties and the candidates that voters can choose from. The current list of federal parties in Canada is not set in stone. A PR system may create opportunity for other parties to win seats in some regions, which would not be reflected in our simulator.
  • Our simulator is based on only one of many possible forms of PR. Different forms of PR may produce very different outcomes.

About MQO Research

Founded in 1987 as MarketQuest Research, the present-day MQO Research was formed following the acquisition of Omnifacts Research in 2010. A leading market research, polling, and evaluation firm based in Atlantic Canada and serving clients across North America, MQO is an Accredited Agency Member of the Canadian Research Insights Council and the only full-service market research firm in Atlantic Canada with an in-house and fully bilingual telephone call centre. MQO’s history of research excellence and end-to-end services enables the firm to uphold the highest industry standards for quality control and consistency in delivering research services.

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