PC Party Now Leading in New Brunswick

MQO Research spoke with 600 residents of New Brunswick to gauge the political temperature in the province for the October edition of our quarterly political poll: Atlantic Matters.

Provincial Politics

“The political environment in New Brunswick is very fluid,” said Stephen Moore, Vice-President at MQO. “We were in the field during a period of political turmoil and it clearly impacted the outcome of the poll.”

According to the latest polling numbers, the PCs are now leading while both the Green Party and People’s Alliance have made significant gains. Among decided and leaning voters:

  • Current Liberal support dropped 11 percentage points to 29%.
  • PC Party support edged up 4 percentage points to 36%.
  • NDP support dropped 6 percentage points to 3%.
  • Support for the Green Party was up 11 percentage points to 21%.
  • Support for the People’s Alliance currently sits at 11%.

The undecided / no vote group dropped 8 percentage points to 37% this quarter.

“In the election, the Liberals took nearly 38 percent of the popular vote, but now their support rests at 29 percent – people are reacting to Brian Gallant’s behaviour following the election,” said Moore. “Tory support has increased, and the level of Green support has nearly doubled since election night.”

“We don’t know if this four-party political landscape is the new normal or if it’s a passing phase, but New Brunswick politics is going to be very interesting to watch.”

Government Performance

The rating for the leadership of Premier Brian Gallant trended down from a mean score of 5.0 last quarter to 4.7 in October (on a 10-point scale).

Provincial Outlook

The economic outlook for the province was relatively unchanged in October. 35% of New Brunswick residents reported their outlook on the economy had worsened over the past three months (edging up from 31% in July), while 50% indicated their outlook had stayed the same (relatively unchanged) and 9% felt things had gotten better (trending down from 13%).

The Atlantic Matters poll was conducted by telephone from October 23rd to November 5th, 2018 and included 600 randomly selected eligible voters from across the province. The margin of error for the total sample is ± 4.0 percentage points 19 times out of 20.

About MQO Research

MQO Research is one of Atlantic Canada’s leading market research firms, providing research insights to clients throughout the region and beyond. Our team includes experts in quantitative and qualitative methodologies and program evaluation. MQO subscribes to the highest standards of information gathering and research ethics in the industry in Canada.

For more information on Atlantic Matters or MQO Research, contact:

Stephen Moore – Vice-President
[email protected]

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