NL Liberals and PCs Statistically Tied Heading into 2019 Election Year


MQO Research spoke with 600 residents of Newfoundland and Labrador to gauge the political temperature in the province for the January edition of our quarterly political poll: Atlantic Matters.

“This is the first time the Tories were above 40 percent since 2017,” said Stephen Moore, Vice-President at MQO. “Liberal support was volatile throughout 2017 and then it leveled off in the mid-40s. Tory gains are potentially because of a very weak NDP.”

Provincial Politics

According to the latest polling numbers, a tight race is forming between the Liberals and PCs heading into an election year. Among decided and leaning voters:

  • Support for the Liberal Party trended down 3 percentage points to 44%.
  • PC Party support jumped 7 percentage points to 42%.
  • NDP support edged down 4 percentage points to 12%.

The undecided / no vote group held relatively steady at 40%.

“The Liberals are in a tough fight for re-election,” said Moore. “The only region they have a lead on the Tories is Western Newfoundland and Labrador.”

Government Performance

Rating for the leadership of Premier Dwight Ball held relatively steady with a mean score of 5.2 (on a 10-point scale) this quarter.

Provincial Outlook

The outlook for the province held relatively steady in January. 44% of residents of Newfoundland and Labrador reported their outlook had worsened over the past three months while 44% indicated their outlook stayed the same and 10 percent felt things had gotten better.

“With only 10 percent of the population saying their general outlook is getting better, the Liberals continued strength is surprising,” said Moore. “The Tories are running out of time to put together a compelling case that they can make people’s lives better.”

The Atlantic Matters poll was conducted by telephone from January 16th to January 28th, 2019 and included 600 randomly selected eligible voters from across the province. The margin of error for the total sample is ± 4.0 percentage points 19 times out of 20.

About MQO Research

MQO Research is one of Atlantic Canada’s leading market research firms, providing research insights to clients throughout the region and beyond. Our team includes experts in quantitative and qualitative methodologies and program evaluation. As a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), MQO subscribes to the highest standards of information gathering and research ethics in the industry in Canada.

For more information on Atlantic Matters or MQO Research, contact:

Stephen Moore
[email protected]
Cell: 902-210-5379

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