Gap Between Federal Liberals and Conservatives Narrows in NS

MQO Research spoke with 600 residents of Nova Scotia to gauge the political temperature in the province for the Spring edition of our quarterly political poll: Atlantic Matters.

Federal Politics

According to the latest polling numbers, the gap between the federal Liberals and Conservatives narrowed in Nova Scotia this quarter. Among decided and leaning voters:

  • Support for the Liberal Party decreased 8 percentage points to 42%.
  • Conservative support increased 5 percentage points to 35%.
  • NDP support was relatively unchanged at 11%.
  • Support for the Green Party edged up 3 percentage points to 10%.
  • Support for the People’s Party held relatively steady at less than 1%.

“The federal Liberals are holding onto their lead in Nova Scotia thanks to support in Halifax,” said Stephen Moore, Vice-President with MQO Research. “Outside of Halifax, the Conservatives are ahead of the Liberals.”

The undecided / no vote group increased 5 percentage points to 39%.

Government Performance

The mean rating for the leadership of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau dropped from 5.0 last quarter to 4.4 in May (on a 10-point scale).

Leader Preference

After seeing a big drop in his personal support numbers, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau now has a slim lead over Conservative Party Leader Andrew Scheer as the top choice for Prime Minister. Among decided respondents:

  • Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was the top choice of 37% of voters, down 14 percentage points from February.
  • Support for Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer jumped 6 percentage points to 31%.
  • Green Leader Elizabeth May garnered the support of 23% of voters (up 8 percentage points).
  • Support for NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh was unchanged at 6%.
  • Support for People’s Party Leader Maxime Bernier also held steady at 3%.

“Again, we see that Green gains are coming at the expense of the federal Liberals,” said Moore. “The NDP are stagnant as Singh only has the support of six percent of decided respondents.”

The Atlantic Matters poll was conducted by telephone from May 3rd to May 13th, 2019 and included 600 randomly selected eligible voters from across the province. The margin of error for the total sample is ± 4.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

About MQO Research

MQO Research is one of Atlantic Canada’s leading market research firms, providing research insights to clients throughout the region and beyond. Our team includes experts in quantitative and qualitative methodologies and program evaluation. As a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), MQO subscribes to the highest standards of information gathering and research ethics in the industry.

For more information on Atlantic Matters or MQO Research, contact:

Stephen Moore – Vice-President
[email protected]
Cell: 902-210-5379

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