Federal Conservatives and Liberals Statistically Tied in NB

MQO Research spoke with 600 residents of New Brunswick to gauge the political temperature in the province for the Spring edition of our quarterly political poll: Atlantic Matters.

Federal Politics

According to the latest polling numbers, a tight race is forming between the federal Liberals and Conservatives in New Brunswick. Among decided and leaning voters:

  • Conservative support held steady at 39%.
  • Support for the Liberal Party decreased 8 percentage points to 36%.
  • Support for the Green Party increased 6 percentage points to 16%.
  • NDP support edged up 3 percentage points to 7%.
  • Support for the People’s Party was relatively unchanged at 1%.

“Gains made by the Green Party come at the expense of the Liberals,” said Stephen Moore, Vice- President at MQO Research. “In multiple provinces, we are seeing a fracturing of the centre-left and that is hurting the federal Liberals.”

The undecided / no vote group edged down 3 percentage points to 35%.

Government Performance

The rating for the leadership of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau dropped from a mean score of 4.6 in February to 4.2 this quarter (on a 10-point scale).

Leader Preference

Conservative Party Leader Andrew Scheer is now leading Prime Minster Justin Trudeau as the top choice for Prime Minister. Among decided respondents:

  • Support for Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer increased 6 percentage points to 37%.
  • Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was the top choice of 32% of voters, down 9 percentage points from February.
  • Support for Green Leader Elizabeth May edged up 3 percentage points to 20%.
  • Support for NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh also edged up 3 percentage points to 7%.
  • Support for People’s Party Leader Maxime Bernier edged down 3 percentage points to 4%.

“The Prime Minister’s personal numbers are trailing the party numbers in the province,” said Moore. “His personal brand is bruised and is likely impacting party preference.”

The Atlantic Matters poll was conducted by telephone from April 23rd to May 6th, 2019 and included 600 randomly selected eligible voters from across the province. The margin of error for the total sample is ± 4.0 percentage points 19 times out of 20.

About MQO Research

MQO Research is one of Atlantic Canada’s leading market research firms, providing research insights to clients throughout the region and beyond. Our team includes experts in quantitative and qualitative methodologies and program evaluation. As a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), MQO subscribes to the highest standards of information gathering and research ethics in the industry.

For more information on Atlantic Matters or MQO Research, contact:

Stephen Moore – Vice-President
[email protected]
Cell: 902-210-5379

Click here to see the full report
Click here to view the French version of this post