Gap Between Federal Liberals and Conservatives Narrowing Heading into Fall Election


MQO Research spoke with 400 residents of Newfoundland and Labrador to gauge the political temperature in the province for the Summer edition of our quarterly political poll: Atlantic Matters.

Federal Politics

According to the latest polling numbers, the Liberals remain in front, but the gap is narrowing heading into the fall election. Among decided and leaning voters:

  • Support for the Liberal Party edged down 3 percentage points to 46%.
  • Conservative support was relatively unchanged at 38%.
  • NDP support held steady at 11%.
  • Support for the Green Party held steady at 2%.
  • Support for the People’s Party was also relatively unchanged at 2%.

“The federal parties held steady in Newfoundland and Labrador,” said Stephen Moore, Vice President with MQO Research. “The regional races are where we see variation – the parties are tied in St. John’s and Eastern Newfoundland. The Liberals have a much healthier lead in Central, Western, and Labrador.”

“In the provincial campaign, we saw the urban St. John’s lean Liberal and suburban St. John’s lean Tory – we will see if that’s the case here.”

Leader Preference

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau remains the top choice for Prime Minister in Newfoundland and Labrador. Among decided respondents:

  • Prime Minister Justin Trudeau garnered the support of 48% of voters, relatively unchanged from May.
  • Support for Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer trended down 4 percentage points to 30%.
  • NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh was the top choice among 10% of voters, relatively unchanged from May.
  • Green Leader Elizabeth May garnered the support of 8% of voters, on par with last quarter.
  • Support for People’s Party Leader Maxime Bernier was relatively unchanged at 4%.

“Prime Minister Trudeau leads Scheer across all demographic groups on the question of preferred Prime Minister,” said Moore. “His lead is largest among females where he leads Scheer by 22 points.”

The Atlantic Matters poll was conducted by telephone from July 25th to July 31st, 2019 and included 400 randomly selected eligible voters from across the province. The margin of error for the total sample is ± 4.9 percentage points 19 times out of 20.

About MQO Research

MQO Research is one of Atlantic Canada’s leading market research firms, providing research insights to clients throughout the region and beyond. Our team includes experts in quantitative and qualitative methodologies and program evaluation. As a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), MQO subscribes to the highest standards of information gathering and research ethics in the industry in Canada.

For more information on Atlantic Matters or MQO Research, contact:

Stephen Moore
[email protected]
Cell: 902-210-5379

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